The latest Farmer Opinion Tracker from DEFRA makes for sobering reading. Confidence across the sector has plummeted to new lows, and for many farmers, the future looks anything but secure.
According to the newly released figures, only 4% of farmers feel very confident about the future of farming. Confidence in DEFRA itself is even worse, with just 2% of respondents saying they trust the department’s ability to manage future changes to regulations and schemes effectively.
This isn’t just about a general sense of unease. It’s a deep, structural loss of trust, fuelled by financial pressures, confusing policies, and a widening gap between the promises of government schemes and the on-the-ground realities of modern farm businesses.
A System Under Strain
The survey paints a picture of a sector stretched to its limits. From the soaring costs of inputs to relentless weather extremes, uncertainty now feels like the only constant in farming.
NFU president Tom Bradshaw didn’t mince his words: “Confidence among British farmers is at rock bottom, and it’s no surprise.”
He pointed to a range of factors, extreme weather, high production costs, volatile returns, and uncertainty around inheritance tax and long-term support, all combining to create one of the toughest operating environments in years. DEFRA’s figures now back up what many have been warning about for months.
And while the survey shows that 84% of farms see environmental outcome payments as important to their business, this is tempered by serious doubts about how well these schemes are being implemented. Many farmers feel caught between environmental aims and economic survival, trying to engage with schemes like SFI while still prioritising their core job: producing food.
“We Took Up the SFI, But I’m Still Worried”
Farmers quoted in the Farmers Guardian report voiced their concern that government policy is drifting further away from the reality on the ground. Mixed farmer Rob Atkin said: “If we hadn’t got the beef business, I don’t know what we would do.” While he’s taken up the SFI, he admits it doesn’t fully align with the core purpose of farming, and he’s unsure what happens when his agreement ends next year.
Roger Wilson, another farmer quoted in the report, summed it up bluntly: “Farming needs to be profitable. If there’s no money for us, leave us alone and let us get on with it.”
Even now, many farms are still unclear about what happens when current SFI agreements expire. And as of the latest Tracker release, DEFRA has announced it will only run the survey once a year moving forward, potentially reducing the visibility of farmer sentiment at a time when regular insights are most needed.
So What’s Really Driving the Confidence Crisis?
- Policy Uncertainty
The transition from EU-era subsidies to modern incentive schemes (like SFI) has created an unpredictable environment. Farmers worry about what will happen after their current agreements expire - Financial Strain
Rising input costs, tight margins, and looming tax changes, particularly inheritance tax reforms set for April 2026, mean many are questioning the viability of long-term farm ownership - Environmental Mandates without Clear Returns
Farmers support environmental goals, 84% say DEFRA payments for environmental outcomes matter to their business, but many feel the incentives don’t sufficiently balance productivity and profitability - Deep Systemic Stress
Confidence surveys from NFU show short‑term farmer confidence dropping to record lows (now around –35 vs –25 the previous year), pointing to worsening operational stress and industry pessimism
What This Means for Farmers and Land Agents
If only 4% of farmers feel “very confident,” it’s not just a statistic, it’s a sign of an industry at a tipping point.
For farmers, unsure of what comes next:
- Strategy planning is hampered
- Compliance risk increases
- Trust in advisory services weakens
For land agents advising multiple clients:
- Policy shifts translate to uncertainty in scheme obligations
- Evidence gaps become liabilities
- Advisory value becomes harder to demonstrate, unless you have clarity
Why Digital Readiness Is the Best Response
Under these tough conditions, tools like JustFarm become more than optional, they become essential. At JustFarm, we’ve spent the last year building exactly the tools land agents and farmers need to stay ahead of these challenges.
- Stay compliant even when rules change unexpectedly
- Capture and organise evidence ensuring you're always audit-ready
- Strategically plan across SFI, CS, and capital grant workflows
- And most importantly, give clients clarity and confidence in their decisions
JustFarm helps you turn system volatility into structured readiness. Instead of reacting to stress-driven policy, you lead with data-driven compliance.
Take Action: Build Resilience in the Midst of Uncertainty
Farmers and land agents: Confidence May Be Low, but Leadership Is Possible
Real stability comes from systems. From tools. From discipline.
We don’t need more vague promises from government websites. What we need is action, from those who work closest to the land and the businesses that depend on it.
Farmers are rightly concerned. But with the right tools, advisors can step up to offer not just help, but leadership.
JustFarm gives you that structure.
It’s not about optimism or change, it’s about preparation. About being the calm in stormy policy cycles.
Book a demo today and show your clients how confidence can be built, even when the government changes policy again.